Dive Brief:
- Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts rooftop solar installations will flatline next year, following Congress' decision to keep tax credits in place that are fueling the resource's growth.
- BNEF said that despite more than 1,000% growth in the last six years, solar panel installations in 2017 will grow by only 0.3%.
- Utility fees and net metering battles as well as a lack of urgency following a decision to extend credits are factors playing into the slowdown.
Dive Insight:
The growth of rooftop solar has been a major story in recent years, with residential installations rising from just a few hundred megawatts in 2010 to about 2,800 MW last year. But that figure will remain about the same in 2017, prompting concern from industry watchers.
"You’re selling the urgency to get in while the tax credits are available,” Hugh Bromley, an analyst at BNEF, told Bloomberg Businessweek. “Once you have long-term subsidy certainty, solar companies may struggle to reimagine their sales pitches.”
Solar installations were being driven by uncertainty over federal tax credits, experts say. But with those now assured for several years, the urgency is fading. Fights over net metering, such as in Nevada where the remuneration rate was lowered, have led to job losses and a slowdown in installations.
But despite a slowdown in residential growth, solar on the whole is still poised to expand.
There will be strong, steady growth far into the 2020s, according to a U.S. Solar Market Insight report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research. More than 7 GW of new PV installations came online last year, and some of the 15 GW of new PV previously forecast for 2016 will be pushed to 2017.
Analysts at GTM Research say 25 GW of installed capacity will result from the tax credit’s extension; more than 50% more solar than there would have been without it.