Dive Brief:
- The upcoming winter will be about 12% warmer than last year, according to a prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That forecast is welcome news to Regional Transmission Organizations, as some regions of the country are wary following reliability issues last season during the Polar Vortex-fueled cold snap.
- But grid operators say they are ready based on current weather predictions, and believe the lessons learned last season will help them prepare for potentially severe weather ahead.
- Even so, lower coal stockpiles and increased natural gas demand have officials at the nation's RTOs wary of unpredicted cold snaps.
Dive Insight:
Operators are cautiously optimistic about predictions for a milder winter, but wary of a surprise bout of cold weather that could stress the nation's power system. Last season's Polar Vortex was not anticipated and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the Northeast and Midwest. Now PJM, the New York ISO, Midwest ISO and ISO New England are all preparing for the worst while hoping for milder temperatures.
RTO Insider spoke with officials at ISO New England, however, and spokeswoman Marcia Blomberg said the region will likely face a “precarious operating position for the next several winters.”
Pipelines in the gas-fueled region are constrained, and last winter's temperatures were so severe that coal deliveries were impaired in some places. Infrequent rail deliveries of coal throughout the summer have also decreased utilities' stockpiles. Coal-fired generation helped keep the grid humming, ultimately, but looking ahead about 15,000 MW will be retired by the 2016-17 winter, RTO Insider reports.