Southern California Edison could end up compensating tens of thousands of Eaton Fire victims for their losses under the company's newly launched Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program, company officials said Wednesday during a fourth-quarter earnings call.
The utility has already received 2,405 claims, and has extended 593 offers totaling more than $183 million, according to data released by the company following the call. Between the compensation program and two settlements with insurance companies, Southern California Edison has so far recorded about a billion dollars in Eaton Fire liabilities, according to Maria Rigatti, the executive vice president and chief financial officer for Edison International, the utility’s parent company.
The cause of the fire remains undetermined, but Edison International President and CEO Pedro Pizarro said ongoing investigations have yet to identify a potential explanation other than the prevailing theory that an idle transmission line owned by Southern California Edison sparked the blaze. The company has photographic evidence showing anomalies in the suspect line's grounding, he said, adding that Southern California Edison adopted a policy of grounding idle lines at least every two miles a few months after the fire.
“Absent additional evidence, SCE believes that it is likely that its equipment could have been associated with the ignition of the Eaton Fire,” Pizarro said.
The total potential cost of the fire remains undetermined, according to Pizarro, because claims filed to date represent just a fraction of what the company expects to receive. Some 18,000 properties are eligible for payouts under Southern California Edison's Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program, and many of those properties might represent multiple claims — including rentals with multiple displaced tenants.
In a client note Thursday, estimates by Jefferies equity analysts put Southern California Edison’s potential Eaton liability at $13.5 billion, assuming 2.5 claims per 18,000 properties, at $300,000 per claim.
The company could ultimately process tens of thousands of claims under the program, Pizarro said. Edison International has also donated $2 million to the Pasadena Community Foundation to assist Eaton Fire survivors.
Wildfire-related liabilities and higher-than-expected depreciation and tax costs will mute shareholder growth in 2026, Rigatti told analysts. But earnings should recover in 2027 and beyond, she said.
Company executives expect 2026 earnings per share to fall between $5.90-$6.20/share, rising to $6.25-$6.65/share in 2027. That’s compared to $6.55/share in 2025 and $4.93/share in 2024.
