- The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects the carbon-free share of power generation in North America will rise from 38% last year to 45% in 2025, reflecting the impact of a trilateral agreement and the assumption that the Clean Power Plan is upheld in court.
- Mexico, Canada and the United States in June signed an agreement — dubbed the "Three Amigos" pact — to pursue 50% clean energy generation by 2025.
- The United States makes up 80% of North American power generation, EIA pointed out. Coal-fired generation in this country is expected to decline by 13% between 2015 and 2025, while natural gas sees a 4% rise.
A trilateral agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico sets the stage for a rise in carbon-free generation, though the EIA noted it does not include energy efficiency baselines that could have made it more effective.
The three countries' goal includes nuclear, renewables and energy efficiency as eligible sources of clean energy, "but it does not specify a baseline for assessing energy efficiency, which has been improving over time," EIA said in a recent note, meaning its recent projections include only renewables and nuclear generation.
The agency believes North America's share of clean-energy generation is on pace to hit 45% in the next nine years, which would leave it short of the trilateral goal.
EIA said it expects the extension of certain tax credits, cost reductions, and the Obama Administration's Clean Power Plan to result in a large jump increase in renewable generation between 2015 and 2025. During that same period, coal-fired generation will decline significantly and by 2025, gas generation will tick up 4%.
Hydropower in Canada means that country already meets 80% of its energy needs with carbon-free sources. By 2025, Mexico's combined nuclear and renewables share of generation is expected to be 29%.
In June, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, President Barack Obama, and Mexico's President Enrique Peña Nieto announced a joint goal to target more renewable resources. "Our actions to align climate and energy policies will protect human health and help level the playing field for our businesses, households, and workers," the White House said in a statement from the three leaders.
EIA said its projections include "substantial increases" in demand-side energy efficiency, but it added that "explicit accounting of energy efficiency contributions are not projected."