Dive Brief:
- Solar energy generation this summer is expected to grow 17% over 2025 production, helping meet rising peaks during the hottest months of the year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast April 6 in its most recent Short Term Energy Outlook. Hydro generation could grow 6% and wind could grow 5%, relative to last summer, according to the forecast.
- Total U.S. electricity sales will likely increase 1.2% in 2026 to 4,108 billion kWh, and another 3.3% in 2027, EIA said. “We expect total demand to increase by 2.3% in the summer months this year compared with 2025 and by 3.7% in 2027,” the federal government’s energy data arm said.
- Coal generation from January to June 2026 is expected to be about 10% lower than in the first half of 2025, EIA said. In the second half of the year, coal generation will be about 6% lower, according to the monthly analysis.
Dive Insight:
EIA’s short-term outlook illustrates the declining role that coal will play in the years ahead, while solar resources grow to meet the demand — particularly in summer. The output of other resources will remain more constant.
Total gas-fired generation is expected to grow from 1,702 billion kWh in 2025 to 1,704 billion kWh this year and 1,774 billion kWh in 2027, according to EIA’s data. Coal will decline from 733 billion kWh in 2025 to 658 billion kWh in 2027. Nuclear will remain relatively constant, with production a little under 800 billion kWh.
EIA expects wind generation will grow from 464 billion kWh in 2025 to 526 billion kWh in 2027. Solar will grow from 293 billion kWh to 415 billion kWh, EIA said.
Renewables growing contributions will be most evident in the summer, EIA said.
Last year, summer solar generation surpassed wind generation for the first time, “and that trend continues in our forecast,” the agency said. “In the summer of 2027, we expect solar generation will grow by 22% to reach 178 BkWh, surpassing wind generation by almost 30%, although we still expect wind will generate more electricity than solar for the whole year.”
