Accelerated Growth
The Minneapolis-based utility serves about 3.9 million electric customers in parts of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The company expects retail sales to grow 5% through 2030.
A 3 GW pipeline of contracted and “high probability” data center projects will drive the majority of that growth, according to the company. Leaders believe Xcel’s data center queue could exceed 20 GW if earlier-stage prospects materialize.
Xcel Energy announced a $15 billion addition to its five-year capital plan on Thursday, which CEO Bob Frenzel said will now cover 7.5 MW of new renewable generation, 3 MW of new gas generation, 1.9 MW of energy storage, 1,500 miles of high-voltage transmission and $5 billion for wildfire mitigation.
Xcel and two telecom companies agreed to a $640 million settlement with plaintiffs in a lawsuit over the 2021-2022 Marshall Fire in Colorado in September. The company excluded a $290 million charge from its share of the Marshall Wildfire settlement in Colorado from quarterly earnings metrics, it noted.
Xcel's long-term vision includes the addition of 4.5 GW of new natural gas capacity as well as 5 GW of energy storage, Frenzel said.
“Making sure that we can deliver a cleaner energy product as well as a highly reliable and highly affordable product is very strategic as we approach economic development with data centers,” Frenzel said.
New data center load represents about 60% of Xcel's anticipated retail sales growth through 2030, but it isn't the only sector driving increased demand at the utility, according to CFO Brian Van Abel. Another 30% of the company's growth comes from the electrification of the oil and gas sector, and residential load growth and electrification represent about 10% of total sales growth.
Subsidiary Southwestern Public Service Company, which serves customers in New Mexico and Texas, anticipates the fastest growth, with retails sales expected to rise 8% through 2030. Northern States Power Minnesota, Northern States Power Wisconsin and Public Service Company of Colorado all expect 4% sales growth through 2030, according to data from Xcel.
Investment Strategy
Van Abel said the company aims to bring most of its new generation online in between 2028 and 2030. He acknowledged this means their spending and growth projections are more front-heavy than those of other utilities, but he said the goal was to avoid the 2030 “tax credit cliff” and to match the accelerated pace of customers looking to secure renewable energy resources.
But the pace of spending led some analysts on the call to question how much debt the company plans to accrue, and whether it could lead to credit downgrades.
While maintaining a strong balance sheet and healthy credit ratings remains important, Van Abel described these as longer-term priorities.
“When you have this type of elevated CapEx over the next few years, there is some pressure there,” he said.
