Dive Brief:
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Reserve margins in Florida are expected to exceed 20% over the next 10 years, according to a report from the Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC).
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Load will grow at a moderate rate in Florida, the report concludes, but will be lower than previous forecasts.
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There are 8,300 MW of new, utility-owned generation planned for Florida, the FRCC reports, including 9,700 MW of combined-cycle capacity, 2,400 MW of combustion turbine capacity, and 1,100 MW of solar capacity.
Dive Insight:
The persistence of low electric load growth has puzzled many power industry observers. Low growth has become the norm even in states like Florida, which has a growing population.
The FRCC expects load to grow in the state by 0.8% a year, compared with a previous forecast of 1.1% a year. Firm summer peak demand is expected to grow by 1.1% per year, compared with 1.5% in FRCC’s previous forecast. And firm winter peak demand is expected to grow by 1.0% a year compared with 0.9% in FRCC’s previous forecast.
Florida utilities, however, are still adding new capacity with about 8,300 MW planned for the state. Most of that capacity will be fueled by natural gas, which is expected to continue to provide about 65% of Florida’s electricity. Renewable energy resources, on the other hand, will supply about 2% of the state’s power by 2025.
Two new gas pipelines are under way in Florida to handle the rising demand for the fuel. One pipeline will run from the Georgia state line to central Florida, and the other from central to south Florida, are expected online by mid-2017.
The combination of those factors means that Florida will continue to have a robust reserve margin. Reserve margins for the FRCC Region for the summer and winter peak hours are projected to exceed 20% over the next 10 years, the FRCC says.
The state’s three investor owned utilities use a 20% minimum reserve margin under agreement with state regulators. Other utilities in the state use a 15% to 18% minimum reserve margin.