Electric reliability margins this summer in New York will be “the lowest ... in recent history,” with extreme weather and an aging generation mix contributing to a risk of blackouts, the New York Independent System Operator said Friday.
“Coordination with generation owners, utility companies, neighboring grid operators, and government officials will be essential as we work to maintain grid reliability this summer,” Aaron Markham, ISO vice president of operations, said in a statement.
The ISO’s annual summer reliability assessment estimates 34,615 MW of power resources will be available this year to meet forecasted peak demand of 31,578 MW. The ISO said it is required to maintain 2,620 MW from the available resources in reserve, leaving a reliability margin of 417 MW under baseline summer conditions.
New York’s reliability margin has declined almost 80% since 2022, when it was 1,918 MW.
“This assessment reflects the challenges of the grid in transition — declining reliability margins, performance issues with aging generators, and an absence of new dispatchable resources,” Markham said.
In the event of a three-day or longer heat wave with average daily temperatures of 95 degrees, and absent emergency operating actions, NYISO said its capacity margin is forecasted to be -1,679 MW. If the average daily temperature reaches 98 degrees, the margin declines further to -3,370 MW.
The ISO can take emergency actions, including purchasing energy, calling for voluntary industrial curtailment and allowing a reduction in operating reserves, to produce 3,166 MW of additional headroom on the system, it said.
The ISO’s all-time peak demand record of 33,956 MW was set in July 2013.
The grid operator’s warning comes as New York is struggling with its energy future. The state has fallen behind on its decarbonization goals, and Gov. Kathy Hochul is considering rewriting landmark 2019 climate legislation to provide a longer path towards a carbon-free electric grid.
The thin reliability margins build on previous warnings from the New York ISO. In November, the grid operator published its 2025 to 2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan, which concluded that the state’s power system is at an “inflection point” as it deals with an aging generation fleet and increasing difficulty in deploying dispatchable resources amid rapid load growth.
New York may need several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation over the next 10 years, according to the assessment.
“The margin for error is extremely narrow, and most plausible futures point to significant reliability shortfalls within the next ten years,” it said.
A 20-year system outlook published in 2024 concluded total system demand could increase by 50% to 90% over the next two decades, driven by the electrification of heating and transportation and the development of energy-intensive projects and industry.
