New York, New England and the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, are expected to have adequate electricity supplies for typical weather patterns this summer, according to an assessment published Wednesday.
However, under higher peak load levels there is some chance that the Maritimes, New England and New York “will need to rely on operating procedures in addition to imports to address resource shortages,” the Northeast Power Coordinating Council said in its 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment. The higher peak load levels have a roughly 7% chance of happening, according to the report.
And a probabilistic assessment suggests that operators in New York and New England “will likely need to implement emergency operating procedures” and/or issue energy emergency alerts during periods of higher-than-expected demand and low-probability reduced resource conditions, according to the report. The greatest risks occur in July and August, “demonstrating concerns under extreme conditions.”
“From the broader regional perspective, the NPCC assessment shows that the region has sufficient transmission capability and the resources needed to reliably meet its summer peak demand for a wide range of system conditions,” NPCC President and CEO Charles Dickerson said in a statement. “If needed, established operating procedures are available to maintain reliability and keep supply and demand in balance.”
The assessment anticipates summer peak demand of about 105,000 MW, just 400 MW higher than last summer’s forecast. The region is projected to have about 158,000 MW of installed capacity available to meet demand, which is about 1,700 MW higher than last summer “in part due to the additional gas and storage facilities expected to be available in Ontario,” NPCC said.
Québec, which sees its electricity demand peak during the winter months, “is expected to meet forecast electricity demand by a wide margin enabling transfers of surplus electricity supplies to other areas of the region,” the coordinating council said.
And transmission projects recently completed in New York and New England “have reinforced overall regional reliability for this summer,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC chief engineer and senior vice president of external affairs.
The 1,250 MW HVDC Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission project is designed to bring hydropower from Québec directly to New York City and as of mid-May was in its final testing phase. NPCC’s probabilistic analysis assumed its availability for the entire summer assessment period.
