Zach Smith is senior vice president of system and resource planning at the New York Independent System Operator.
In the spring, the New York Independent System Operator issued a troubling forecast: New York’s electric grid was heading into summer with the slimmest reliability margin in recent history.
The margin was calculated after determining that the long-awaited Champlain Hudson Power Express, or CHPE, a transmission line built to deliver Canadian hydropower directly to New York City, was unlikely to enter service on schedule. The line is an important addition to New York's electric system and is expected to deliver significant long-term benefits, including 1,250 MW to New York City in times of peak demand.
At the time, some questioned the NYISO’s cautious outlook, which required NYISO to forestall the retirement of aging peaker plants that had been scheduled to deactivate. Why did NYISO exclude CHPE from projections given that it was expected to enter service this summer, and, in June, it did?
July gave us the answer. During the Independence Day heatwave, one of the most challenging reliability tests New York has faced in years, CHPE experienced outages, including a shutdown on July 4 that left the line unavailable during a period of elevated system stress.
The state’s clean energy policies encourage the deactivation of fossil fuel-based resources, but the transition must be managed carefully to ensure sufficient resources are always available to the grid to meet demand. If CHPE failed to enter service on schedule and the peaker plants were allowed to deactivate, outages due to insufficient supply were likely.
During the heatwave, multiple unexpected generator outages further strained grid conditions, underscoring how prudently conservative planning assumptions can quickly prove necessary when the electric system is under stress.
Reliability planning recognizes that the future rarely unfolds exactly as expected. Projects can be delayed, equipment can fail, and demand can exceed forecasts.
Large-scale infrastructure projects like CHPE are inherently complex, and unexpected challenges must be taken into account. The NYISO planning process typically examines multiple futures because reliability depends not on a single expected outcome, but on whether the grid can withstand a range of plausible risks.
The July heatwave showcased the wisdom in that approach. Despite extraordinary conditions, New York's grid remained reliable because operators had anticipated tight energy reserves, evaluated resource availability, coordinated with neighboring systems, and prepared contingency measures well before temperatures began climbing.
The heatwave also underscored the need for immediate investment in new supply. Equipment failures are as inevitable as the next heatwave or cold snap. To ensure the grid continues to function reliably, we must invest in new generation and transmission.
There is a broader lesson to be learned from the July heatwave.
When the NYISO was established in 1999, state and federal policymakers recognized that operating the electric grid and administering wholesale electric markets required neutral, fact-based decision-making that is insulated from commercial and political pressures.
The NYISO is governed by an independent Board of Directors with no financial ties to market participants. The NYISO is overseen by state and federal regulators, beholden to the rules set by state and regional electric system reliability organizations and supported by a transparent stakeholder process.
These features ensure that no single entity or group of entities can unduly influence how the electric system operates. Engineers, operators and planners must evaluate risks objectively, even when their conclusions are unpopular or politically inconvenient.
The decision not to assume full CHPE availability for this summer is a case in point. Had planners adopted more optimistic assumptions, New York would have entered the summer with a misleading outlook on paper. Instead, the NYISO acknowledged the possibility that critical resources might not be available when needed most.
In fact, that’s precisely how the summer played out.
When one of the grid's newest resources went offline during one of the summer's most demanding periods, New York benefited from an independent system operator that had the resilience and independence to make difficult calls and keep the power flowing. The independence model of the NYISO protects consumers — in this case when health and safety are at stake.
