Dive Brief:
- ICF expects about 445 GW of nameplate capacity will come online in the United States from this year through 2030. Given the characteristics of different technologies, however, the capacity will only contribute about 191 GW to meeting peak load, the consulting firm said in a report released Thursday.
- ICF expects U.S. electricity demand will grow 21% by 2030 and 39% by 2035 from 2026 levels, according to the report, “Electricity Demand Growth: How Will the Grid Keep Pace?” It forecasts that peak demand will increase 14% by 2030 and 25% by 2035 from 2026 levels.
- Demand-side management and grid-enhancing technologies can be key tools for managing near-term tightness in supply and demand while generation and transmission lines are getting built, the consulting firm said.
Dive Insight:
The U.S. has about 26 GW of excess generating capacity for an additional cushion above required planning reserves.
However, power supply and demand conditions vary by regions and within regions, ICF analysts said.
For example, the consulting firm expects demand in the PJM Interconnection will jump 43% from 2026 levels by 2035, but demand will only grow 14% in the same period in the New York Independent System Operator’s footprint.
“In high-growth regions, there is already little or no extra capacity available to absorb new demand,” ICF analysts said. “As a result, some new large-load interconnections are being delayed until enough infrastructure can come online to serve them reliably.”
The PJM Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas have no spare capacity to support demand growth beyond next year, according to the report. The Southeast and New York regions could face similar limits in a few years, ICF analysts said.
Electric generation is being built to meet the demand growth, but “timing and scale are critical,” ICF analysts said.
The analysts expect 68 GW of generation will come online this year, 76 GW in 2027 and about 100 GW annually in the following three years.
By 2030, ICF expects the capacity additions will include:
- 177 GW of solar;
- 120 GW of battery storage;
- 77 GW of front-of-the-meter gas-fired generation; and
- 62 GW of onshore wind.
Depending on market and operating conditions, 1 GW of solar may produce 1 TWh to 3 TWh a year, ICF noted, while 1 GW of combined-cycle gas may produce 6 TWh to 8 TWh annually.
Existing resources can affect the near-term ability to serve emerging loads, according to the report.
“In some regions, uprates, delayed retirements, life extensions, co-located resources, or [behind-the-meter] generation may help manage timing risk while new infrastructure is developed,” the ICF analysts said. “These options will not eliminate the need for new generation, transmission, and distribution investment, but they can influence where and how quickly new load can be served.”
