Although their regions might see hotter-than-average temperature days over the summer, the Southwest Power Pool, California Independent System Operator and PJM Interconnection project that they have enough power supplies to meet electricity demand, according to recent releases from those organizations.
PJM said in a May 7 release that although the National Weather Service is forecasting “hotter-than-normal conditions this summer in the PJM region’s mid-Atlantic and southern states, as well as West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee,” it should have adequate reserves to maintain reliability.
The RTO said it expects energy demand to peak around 156 GW over the summer, but has 182 GW of capacity ready, along with 7.8 GW of contracted demand response.
SPP meteorologist Jeff Baskin said in a Monday release from the RTO that “forecasts indicate the potential for higher-than-normal temperatures and drought conditions across parts of our region” this summer, but SPP said it’s highly likely that the region’s supply will be able to meet its demand.
“We remain confident in our ability to keep the lights on for our member utilities and the 20 million people they serve through the summer,” said SPP Vice President of Operations C.J. Brown.
CAISO said in a May 4 blog post that its summer assessment indicates “a surplus of capacity of [2.5 GW] relative to what is needed to meet the 1‑in‑10 loss‑of‑load expectation criteria, which in this context means no more than one event every ten years where insufficient resources require emergency measures to balance supply and demand.”
CAISO’s footprint is also likely to see higher-than-average temperatures this summer, the ISO said. Warm coastal sea surface temperatures “increase the likelihood of a hotter‑than‑usual coastal summer, in contrast to the milder conditions observed in recent years,” and above-normal temperatures are expected throughout the West for June, July and August.
“While sufficient capacity is available to meet expected summer demand, risks do remain,” CAISO said. “Abnormally dry conditions, increased wildfire risk, and the potential for extended, widespread heat events and related disruptions could challenge grid operations as the season progresses.”
